Monthly Archives: May 2023

Brain Research, Education

Your Brain..On Math!

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Credit: SciTechDaily https://scitechdaily.com/researchers-discover-how-the-human-brain-separates-stores-and-retrieves-memories/

In my earlier blogs, I talked about Math Anxiety, about how the brain creates a sense of Now, and various other fun issues in brain research too. Branching off of my long, professional interest in math education, I thought I would look into how ‘doing’ math actually changes your brain in many important ways, especially for children and adolescents. Brain research has come a long way in the last 15 years with the advent of fMRI and sensors that can listen-in to individual neutrons [1]. For a detailed glimpse of modern research have a look at my reference list at the end of this blog.

Here is what we know about how math affects brain structure and maturation. My previous blog on Math Anxiety covered this topic but here are some additional points.

The Basic Anatomy of Math

First of all, let’s put to rest a popular misconception. Its a complete fallacy that we only use 10% of our brain. The misconception probably arose because glial cells that support neurons account for 90% of the cellular matter in the brain, so neurons account for 10% [9,11,10]. The truth is, by the end of each day, your brain has used nearly all of its neurons to facilitate movement, sensory processing, advanced planning, and even day-dreaming!

The architecture of our brains is controlled by about 86 million neurons and the trillions of synaptic connections between them. At the lowest level, our brains are composed of numerous modules that are specialized for specific tasks. Each has its own local knowledge system and ‘data cache’ and can act much faster than the whole-brain, which is the way evolution designed this system to help us respond quickly and not get eaten. We benefit from this ancient architecture because craftsmen, musicians and dancers cannot tell you how they perform their tasks because it is largely unconscious and controlled by specific modules. [6:p45, 198].

Before the age of 2, children use a general knowledge ‘program’ that takes up all of their working memory [2:p151] to interact with the environment. Children require more working memory to do math than adults. Number facts and basic opeations are not yet in long-term memory so they use more of their prefronal cortex (PFC) to keep math in working memory so that they can solve problems [2:p155]. But through training they develope a growing multitude of specialized modules and automatic ‘subroutines’ for specific tasks and skills. [6:p56]. Consciousness occurs when these non-communicating modules begin to share their knowledge across many communities of modules spanning the entire cerebral network. Some of these global communication pathways are highlighted by the so-called brain connectome map. This sharing of multiple representations of similar knowledge leads to problem solving and creativity which now draw inspiration from the experiences of many different modules [6:p58] spanning the entire cortex.

The wiring diagram of a human brain revealing connections. Courtesy of the consortium of The Human Connectome Project

Development of the Brain

At birth, the average baby’s brain is about a quarter of the size of the average adult brain. Incredibly, it doubles in size in the first year. It keeps growing to about 80% of adult size by age 3 and 90% – nearly full grown – by age 5 [12]. Over 1 million new neural connections are created every second among the synapses of the growing population of neurons and dendrites [13]. What then ensues is a process of pruning as seldome-used connections wither and dissappear while others are strengthened [20].

The growing brain does not start out as a tabla rasa but through genetics and evolution there are already features in place that anticipate the growth of mathematical knowledge.

Number Line Maps

At the most elementary level, neurons already exist at birth that are active for specific numbers. These ‘number neurons’ have been found in both monkeys and in humans. In humans they are mostly found in the lateral prefrontal cortex (l-PFC) and the intraparietal sulcus (IPS). [2:p129], but also the mediotemporal lobe (MTL) [2:p98]

Our brain’s hippocampous has place and grid cells that form a direct map written on its cortex that represents the location of objects in space [7p219]. The posterior cingulate region has neurons tuned to the location of objects in the outside world, and is connected to the parahippocampal gyrus where “place cells’ are found. These neurons fire whenever an animal occupies a specific location in space like the northwest corner of your room. These place cells are so advanced that readout of individual nerve cell firings can be used to tell a researcher where the object is in the subjects visual field of view. This even works when the subject closes their eyes and imagines an animal located there. [4:p149].

A curious feature of how the young brain processes quantities is that it perceives quantities as being located on a mental number line. Called the SNARC Effect, even three-day-old infants will look-right for large quantities and look-left for smaller quantities.[2:236]. That calculation-related activity is being processed like mental movement on a number line was also tested in older subjects by studying neuron activation in the superior parietal lobule (SPL) where information is being manipulated in working memory. They found that eye motion alone predicted the answers to simple addition and subtraction problems [2:239]. So just as the brain uses an internal map in the hippocampus to locate objects in space, it also uses an internal map to locate numbers in space along a line! The number line however is not uniform.

Kindergarten students with no math knowledge see number intervals as quantities mapped out in logarithmic intervals just as many animals do, so that quantities are perceived almost the same way as light brightness or sound volume [2:87]. Large numbers with smaller intervals are crowded together in the right-hand of the mental number line while smaller numbers are more spread out in the left-side of the line.

Meanwhile, the concepts of addition and subtraction are already known to infants as young as nine months[2:196]. Thinking about quantity as symbolic numerals like 1,2,3 etc instead of dots like [.], [..], […] etc at first occupies children up to age 7 who have to use their working memory to keep track of this, but within a few years the relationship between number symbols and dots becomes automatic and unconscious [2:185]. By the way, although algebra looks like a language, algebra is not processed in the brain’s language centers [2:p222] You can think and reason logically without language. In fact, when professional mathematicians are studied and asked to solve advanced problems, their language centers are not activated. Instead, the bilateral frontal, intraparietal and ventrolateral temporal regions were active, which are connected to the regions associated with processing numbers [2:232].

Math Remodels the Brain.

For mathematicians, an interesting recycling of brain areas occurs in order to accommodate advanced mathematics. Afterall, the brain volume is fixed by the volume of the skull, so the only way that new skills are learned and mastered is by appropriating cerebral real estate from other adjacent functions. The inferior temporal gyrus (ITG) is an area where face recognition occurs. For mathematicians, part of this region is invaded by adjacent regions used in number processing [2:191], in some cases making it harder for mathematicians to recognize faces!

Admittedly, this is an extreme result of brain reorganization, but there are other examples that are more relevant to children and young adults and the answer to the question ‘Why do I need to know math?’

Researchers have proposed that math training not only makes us better at math, but also strengthens our ability to moderate our feelings and our social interactions because of the brains proclivity in  sharing brain regions for other purposes.

Example 1: In my previous blog on Math Anxiety, I mentioned that the sub-region called the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex helps us keep relevant  problem-solving information ‘fresh’ in our working memory. In math it is activated when the individual is keeping track of more than one concept at a time. As it also turns out, this region is also activated as we regulate our emotions. For example, most children learn how to tone-down their glee at winning a game when they see their friends are mortified at  having lost.  It is also important in suppressing selfish behavior, fostering commitment in relationships, and most importantly inferring the intentions of others, which is called a Theory of Mind.

Example 2: The long-term effect of not continuing math education and problem-solving in adolescents has also been documented. A recent study of adolescents in the UK shows that a lack of math education affects adolescent brain development. In the UK, students can elect to end their math education at age 16.  The neurotransmitter called gamma-Aminobutyric acid (GABA) is present in the middle front gyrus (MFG), which is a region involved in reasoning and cognitive learning. GABA levels are a predictor of changes in mathematical reasoning as much as 19 months later.  What was found among the older adolescents was that GABA showed a marked reduction[14]. This neurotransmitter is also correlated with brain plasticity and its ability to reconfigure itself by growing new synapses as it learns new skills or knowledge having npothing to do with math [16].

Example 3: The mediotemporal lobe (MTL)  includes the hippocampus, amygdala and parahippocampal regions, and is crucial for episodic and spatial memory. The MTL memory function consists of distinct processes such as encoding, consolidation and retrieval, and supports many functions including emotion, affect, motivation and long-term memory. The MTL also has numerous number neurons [2:p98] and is involved in processing mathematical concepts. Activity in this region represents a short-term memory of the arithmetic rule, whereas the hippocampus may ‘do the math’ and process numbers according to the arithmetic rule at hand.”[15].

Example 4: Memory-based math problems stimulate a region of the brain called the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, which has already been linked to depression and anxiety. Studies have found, for example, that higher activity in this area is associated with fewer symptoms of anxiety and depression. A well-established psychological treatment called cognitive behavioral therapy, which teaches individuals how to re-think negative situations, has also been seen to boost activity in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. The ability to do more complex math problems might allow you to more readily learn how to think about complex emotional situations in different ways. Greater activity in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex was also associated with fewer depression and anxiety symptoms. The difference was especially obvious in people who had been through recent life stressors, such as failing a class. Participants with higher dorsolateral prefrontal activity were also less likely to have a mental illness diagnosis.[17]

The bottom line for much of the research on how the brain functions with and without mathematics stimulation is that low numeracy is a bigger problem for the brain than low literacy [2:p307] It affects your economic opportunities in life, handeling personal finances, operating as a savvy consumer, and it even connects with your ability to logically process complex social situations and predict what your best course of action might be in many different circumstances.

Many of the brain regions needed for math performance are still under development between ages of 16 and 26 including most importantly the frontal cortex essential for judgment and anticipating future consequances of actions.

So when a student asks what is math good for, take a step back and walk them through the Big Picture!

Books that are definitely worth the time to read!

[1] The Tell-Tale Brain, V.S. Ramachandran, 2011, W.W. Norton and Co.

[2] A Brain for Numbers, Andreas Nieder, 2019, MIT Press

[3] The Consciousness Instinct, Michael Gazzangia, 2018, Farrar, Straus and Giroux

[4] Consciousness and the Brain, Stanislaus Dehaene, 2014, Penguin Books.

[5] Being You: A new science of consciousness, Anil Seth, 2021, Dutton Press

[6] The Prehistory of the Mind, Stevem Mithen, 1996, Thames and Hudson Publishers.

[7] The Idea of the Brain, Matthew Cobb, 2020, Basic Books

[8] The River of Consciousness, Oliver Sacks, 2017, Vintage Books

[9] Myth: We only use 10% of our brains. Stephen Chew ,2018, https://www.psychologicalscience.org/uncategorized/myth-we-only-use-10-of-our-brains.html

[10] Neurological glial cells – https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK10869/

[11] Unsung brain cells play key role in neurons’ development, 2009, Bruce Goldman, https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2009/09/unsung-brain-cells-play-key-role-in-neurons-development.html#:~:text=Ben%20Barres’%20research%20has%20led,90%20percent%20of%20the%20brain.

[12] https://www.firstthingsfirst.org/early-childhood-matters/brain-development/

[13] https://developingchild.harvard.edu/science/key-concepts/brain-architecture/

[14] www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/06/210607161149.htm and DOI:10.1073/pnas.2013155118

[15] Math Neurons” Fire Differently Depending On Whether You Add Or Subtract, 2022, https://www.iflscience.com/math-neurons-fire-differently-depending-on-whether-you-add-or-subtract-62658

[16] https://www.theguardian.com/education/2021/jun/07/studying-maths-beyond-gcses-helps-brain-development-say-scientists

[17] https://today.duke.edu/2016/10/could-mental-math-boost-emotional-health

[20] https://coverthree.com/blogs/research/kids-brain-development

Astronomy, Big Bang, Education, Physics

The Big Bang: Explained at the reading level of Genesis.

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The universe began with a bang. Can we explain it all as simply as in many religious stories. (Image credit: Shutterstock)

I have often wondered how the modern description of the Big Bang could be written as a story that people at different reading levels would be able to understand, so here are some progressively more complete descriptions beginning with Genesis and their reading level determined by Reliability Formulas.

Genesis (from MIT Bible Gateway)

“In the beginning God created the heavens and the earth. Now the earth was formless and empty, darkness was over the surface of the deep, and the Spirit of God was hovering over the waters. And God said, “Let there be light,” and there was light. God saw that the light was good, and he separated the light from the darkness. God called the light “day,” and the darkness he called “night.” And there was evening, and there was morning–the first day. And God said, “Let there be an expanse between the waters to separate water from water.” So God made the expanse and separated the water under the expanse from the water above it. And it was so. God called the expanse “sky.” And there was evening, and there was morning–the second day. And God said, “Let the water under the sky be gathered to one place, and let dry ground appear.” And it was so. God called the dry ground “land,” and the gathered waters he called “seas.” And God saw that it was good. Then God said, “Let the land produce vegetation: seed-bearing plants and trees on the land that bear fruit with seed in it, according to their various kinds.” And it was so. The land produced vegetation: plants bearing seed according to their kinds and trees bearing fruit with seed in it according to their kinds. And God saw that it was good. And there was evening, and there was morning–the third day. And God said, “Let there be lights in the expanse of the sky to separate the day from the night, and let them serve as signs to mark seasons and days and years, and let them be lights in the expanse of the sky to give light on the earth.” And it was so. God made two great lights–the greater light to govern the day and the lesser light to govern the night. He also made the stars. God set them in the expanse of the sky to give light on the earth, to govern the day and the night, and to separate light from darkness. And God saw that it was good.”

The Flesch Reading ease Score gives this an 87.9 ‘easy to read‘ score. Flesch-Kincaid gives this a grade level of 4.5. The Automated Readability Index gives it an index of 4 which is 8-9 year olds in grades 4-5. Amazingly, the scientific content in this story is completely absent and in fact promotes many known misconceptions appropriate to what children under age-5 know about the world.

Can we do at least as well as this story in a 365-word summary that describes the origin of the universe, the origin of the sun, moon and earth, and the appearance of life? Because the reading level of Genesis is only at most Grade-5, can we describe a scientific treatment using only concepts known by the average Fifth-Grader? According to the Next Generation Science Standards, students know about gravity, and scales of time but ideas about atoms and other forces are for Grade 6 and above. The average adult reader can fully comprehend a text with a reading grade level of eight. So if the text has an eighth grade Flesch Kincaid level, its text should be easy to read and accessible by the average US adult. But according to Wylie Communications, half of all US adults read at or below 8th-grade level. The American Academy of Arts and Sciences survey also shows that US adults know about atoms (51%), that the universe began with a Big Bang (41%) and that Earth orbits the sun (76%) so that US adults rank between 5th and 9th internationally in our basic scientific knowledge.

The genesis story splits itself into three distinct parts: The origin of the universe;The origin of stars and planets; and The origin of life and humanity. Only the middle story has detailed observational evidence at every stage. The first and last stories were one-of events for which exact replication and experimentation is impossible.

Because we are 3000 years beyond the writing of Genesis, let’s allow a 400-word limit for each of these three parts and aim at a reading level and science concept level not higher than 7th grade.

First try (497 words):

Origin of the Universe. Our universe emerged from a timeless and spaceless void. We don’t know what this Void is, only that it had none of the properties we can easily imagine. It had no dimension, or space or time; energy or mass; color or absence of color. Scientists use their mathematics to imagine it as a Pure Nothingness. Not even the known laws of nature existed.

Part of this Void exploded in a burst of light and energy that expanded and created both time and space as it evolved in time. This event also locked into existence what we call the Laws of Nature that describe how many dimensions exist in space, the existence of four fundamental forces, and how these forces operate through space and time.

At first this energy was purely in the form of gravity, but as the universe cooled, some of this energy crystalized into particles of matter. Eventually, the familiar elementary particles such as electrons and quarks emerged and this matter became cold enough that basic elements like hydrogen and helium could form.

But the speed at which the universe was expanding wasn’t steady in time. Instead this expansion doubled in speed so quickly that within a fraction of a second, the space in our universe inflated from a size smaller than a baseball to something many billions of miles across. Today, after 14 billion years of further expansion we see only a small fraction of this expanded space today, and we call it the Observable Universe. But compared to all the space that came out of the Big Bang, our entire Observable Universe is as big as a grain of sand compared to the size of our Earth. The Universe is truly an enormous collection of matter, radiation and energy in its many forms.

Meanwhile, the brilliant ‘fireball’ light from the Big Bang also cooled as the universe expanded so that by one million years after the Big Bang, it was cooler than the light we get from the surface of our own sun. Once this light became this cool, familiar atoms could start to form. As the universe continued to expand and cool, eventually the light from the Big Bang became so cool that it could only be seen as a dull glow of infrared light every where in space. The atoms no longer felt the buffeting forces of this fireball light and had started to congregate under the force of gravity into emmence clouds throughout space. It is from these dark clouds that the first stars would begin to form.

Mixed in with the ordinary matter of hydrogen and helium atoms was a mysterious new kind of matter. Scientists call this dark matter because it is invisible but it still affects normal matter by its gravity. Dark matter in the universe is five times more common than ordinary matter. It prevents galaxies like the Milky Way from flying apart, and clusters of galaxies from dissolving into individual galaxies.

Flesch Reading Ease 60. (Average difficulty); Flesch-Kincaid Grade: 10.2; Automated Readability Index: 11

Second Try (538 words):

Origin of the Universe. Our universe emerged from a timeless and spaceless void. We don’t know what this Void was. We think it had none of the properties we can easily imagine. It had no dimension, or space or time. It had no energy or mass. There was no color to it either blackness or pure white. Scientists use their mathematics to imagine it as a Pure Nothingness. They are pretty sure that not even the known laws of nature existed within this Void.

Part of this Void exploded in a burst of light and energy. Astronomers call this the Big Bang. It  expanded and created both time and space as it evolved in time. This event also locked into existence what we call the Laws of Nature. These Laws describe how many dimensions exist in space. The Laws define the four fundamental forces, and how they operate through space and time.

At first the energy in the Big bang was purely in the form of gravity. But as the universe expanded and cooled, some of this energy crystalized into particles of matter. Eventually, the familiar elementary particles such as electrons and quarks emerged. This matter became cold enough that basic elements like hydrogen and helium could form.

But the speed at which the universe was expanding wasn’t steady in time. Instead this expansion doubled in speed very quickly. Within a fraction of a second, the space in our universe grew from a size smaller than a baseball to something many billions of miles across. After 14 billion years of further expansion we see only a small fraction of this expanded space today. We call it the Observable Universe. But compared to all the space that came out of the Big Bang, our entire Observable Universe is as big as a grain of sand compared to the size of our Earth. The Universe is truly an enormous collection of matter, radiation and energy in its many forms.

Meanwhile, the brilliant ‘fireball’ light from the Big Bang also cooled as
the universe expanded. By one million years after the Big Bang, it was cooler than the light we get from the surface of our own sun. Once this light became this cool, familiar atoms could start to form. As the universe continued to expand and cool, eventually the blinding light from the Big Bang faded into a dull glow of infrared light. At this time, a human would see the universe as completely dark. The atoms no longer felt the buffeting forces of this fireball light. They began to congregate under the force of gravity. Within millions of years, immense clouds began to form throughout space. It is from these dark clouds that the first stars would begin to form.

Mixed in with the ordinary matter of hydrogen and helium atoms was a mysterious new kind of matter. Scientists call this dark matter.  It is invisible to the most powerful telescopes, but it still affects normal matter by its gravity. Dark matter in the universe is five times more common than the ordinary matter we see in stars. It prevents galaxies like the Milky Way from flying apart. It also prevents clusters of galaxies from dissolving into individual galaxies.

Flesch Reading Ease 66.7. (Average difficulty); Flesch-Kincaid Grade: 7.2; Automated Readability Index: 6.6 (11-13 year olds).

Third Try ( 410 words )

Origin of the Universe. Our universe appeared out of a timeless and spaceless void. We don’t know what this Void was. We can’t describe it by its size, its mass or its color.  It wasn’t even ‘dark’  because dark (black) is a color.  Scientists think of it as a Pure Nothing.

Part of this Void exploded in a burst of light and energy. We don’t know why.  Astronomers call this event the rather funny name of the ‘Big Bang’. It  was the birth of our universe. But it wasn’t like a fireworks explosion. Fireworks expand into the sky, which is space that already exists. The Big Bang created space as it went along.  There was nothing for it to expand into. The Big Bang also created  what we call the Laws of Nature. These Laws describe how forces like gravity and matter affect each other.

As the universe expanded and cooled, some of its energy became particles of matter. This is like raindrops condensing from a cloud when the cloud gets cool enough. Over time, these basic particles  formed  elements like hydrogen and helium.

The universe continued to expand. Within the blink of an eye, it grew from a size smaller than a baseball to something many billions of miles across. Today, after 14 billion years  we see only a small piece of this expanded space today. Compared to all the space that came out of the Big Bang, what we see around us is as big as a grain of sand compared to the size of our Earth. The Universe is truly enormous!

After about one million years  the fireball light from the Big Bang became very dim. At this time, a human would see the universe as completely dark. There were, as yet, no stars to light up the sky and the darkness of space. Atoms  began to congregate under the force of gravity. Within millions of years, huge clouds the size of  our entire Milky Way galaxy began to form throughout space. From these dark clouds, the first stars started to appear.

Mixed in with  ordinary matter  was a mysterious new kind of matter. Scientists call this dark matter.  It is invisible to the most powerful telescopes. But it still affects normal matter by its gravity, and that’s a very good thing! Without dark matter,  galaxies like our Milky Way and its billions of stars would fly apart, sending their stars into the dark depths of intergalactic space.

Flesch Reading Ease 73.3. (Fairly easy to read); Flesch-Kincaid Grade: 5.9 (Sixth grade) ; Automated Readability Index: 5.1 (8 – 9 year olds) Fourth to Fifth grade.

Summary.

The Third Try is about as simple and readable a story as I can conjure up, and it comes in at a reading level close to Fourth grade. Scientifically, it works with terms like energy, space, expansion, matter  and gravity, and scales like millions and billions of years. All in all, it is not a bad attempt that reads pretty well, scientifically, and does not mangle some basic ideas. It also has a few ‘gee whiz’ ideas like Nothing, space expansion and dark matter. 

So, what do you think? Leave me a note at my Facebook page!

Next time I will tackle the middle essay about the formation of  stars and planets!

Astronomy, aurora, Space weather, sunspot cycle

Sunspot Cycle Update!

Aurora over South Dakota on April 23, 2023 taken by Evan Ludes. https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=195462

The spectacular solar storm we had on April 23, 2023 reminds us that, as the current sunspot cycle continues to progress, we will have many more of these spectacular aurora to look forward to in the next few years. So where are we in the current sunspot cycle?

Sunspot cycles average about 9 to 12 years, with the stronger cycles on the shorter end of this range and weaker cycles on the longer end of this range. The current cycle, Number 25, seems to be exceeding all forecasts for a weaker cycle and may in fact resemble previous ones like Cycle 22 or 23.

Solar Cycle Progression (Solar Cycle 24 – 25) – March 2023. Credit: NOAA/SWPX https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

The current cycle began in December 2019 and some predictions at that time suggested that it would probably be a very weak cycle perhaps not even exceeding Cycle 24. This is shown by the grey band in the above figure. Some even thought based on solar magnetic field data that we could be heading into another Maunder Minimum with no recognizble sunspots for the next 50 years. Instead, the rapid rise of activity and solar flares since 2020 has demonstrated that we still do not really understand what drives sunspot cycles.

This is rather embarrasing. The sunspot cycle is one of the most glaring features of the sun whose nearly constant period of 11 years begs to be explained. This is like meteorologists still not being able to explain why Earth has its four seasons.

The current sunspot cycle was born with the first spots sighted around April 2018 with spots that had the opposite polarity of those in Cycle 24. It is common for such spots to start appearing several years before the actual cycle commences. But by November 2019 this number had increased to two spots. In May 2020 the first M-class flare erupted, followed by the first X-class flare in July 2020.

Since 2020, the sunsppot counts and flare activity have consistently placed Cycle 25 on the upper tracks of the strong cycle forecasts being nearly 50% more active than the initial predictions year-by-year. Already by January and March 2023 we are seeing 143 and 122 sunspots which compares with the peak of 146 seen for Cycle 24. The red band in the figure below shows the current range of curves based on the most recent data. This places the trend for the maximum somewhere between Cycle 23 and Cycle 24. But the current year 2023 trends will probably give us the definitive predictions. So far, it looks like Cycle 25 will peak around early-2024.

This chart shows from lft to right the sunspot cycles 21,22,23 and 24. The last one on the right is the current cycle 25, with the original predicted number of sunspots, represented as the blue line. The green lines show the observed sunspots, which are trending toward the red line – the McIntosh et al. study – which predicts a higher number of sunspots. https://blogs.nasa.gov/solarcycle25/

So far, Cycle 25 is 40 months old. During this time we have already experienced 8 X-class flares on (X1) October 2, 2022, (X1.2) January 5, 2023, (X1.3) January 9, 2023, (X1) January 10, 2023, (X1.1) February 11, 2023, (X2.2) February 17, 2023, (X2.1) March 3, 2023, and (X1.2) March 29, 2023. Most of these appeared in 2023 so the pace of these major events is quickening.

Why is this important?

The sunspot cycle is a barometer of what we call space weather. Space weather is a term analogous to Earth weather with a number of parallels. Strong terrestrial winds are equivalent to the solar wind. Solar flares are equivalent to severe lightning storms, and coronal mass ejections are analogous to hurricanes and tornados. Just as severe Earth weather can cause billions of dollars of damage, severe space weather can damage satellites in Earth orbit, produce harmful radiation for astronauts working in space, and cause electric power grid outages. They also produce dramatic aurora!

The most recent examples of what space weather can do is the loss of 40 Starlink satellites on February 3, 2022 costing SpaceX over $100 million. The cause was a space weather event that heated up Earth’s outer atmosphere causing it to expand into space and provide extra drag to the satellites in Low Earth Orbit. The satellites tried to compensate by firing their thrusters but quickly used up all their propellant and burned up in the atmosphere.

Meanwhile, the European Space Agency’s Swarm satellites are having their own problems. Launched in 2013, these satellites measure and map Earth’s magnetic field. By July 2022 the satellites in the three-satellite constellation have been falling by up to 20 km per year from their initial orbit of 450-530 km.

How stormy can it get?

Frequency of geomagnetic events stronger than Kp=6 (blue) Kp=7 (red) and Kp=8 (black) averaged over the recent ‘strong’ sunspot cycles by the year of the cycle. Sunspot Maximum occurs near Years 5-6.

The graph shows how disturbed Earth’s magnetic field is during various years throughout the sunspot cycle. It is based on the average activity from the past three cycles. The black line gives the average number of extreme storms with Kp > 8 that produce aurora seen as far south as southern California or Florida like the recent one on April 23, 2023. The red line is storms stronger tha Kp = 7, and the blue line is storms stronger then Kp=6. These still produce brilliant aurora, but generally only seen in the northern-tier states of the United States and in New England and Alaska.

We are now in Year 4 of the current sunspot cycle with a maximum that may be between Year 5-6 in 2024-2025, so we should expect that most of the aurora activity is still in our future, peaking sometime between Year 7 and 9, which is about 2026-2028. It all depends on how the sunspot numbers play out this year and in 2024, but for aurora lovers, the best is yet to come!